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Don’t shoot for the moon: aiming for ‘above average’ is key to success, maths suggests

Model created by researchers shows better outcomes are often more likely when people are not too ambitious

It is the end of an idiom for motivational speakers. Instead of shooting for the moon when pursuing life’s goals, researchers say people should be advised to aim a little lower if they want the best outcome.

The tip may lack the punch of uncompromising drive, but aiming for merely above average tends to work out better, according to a mathematical model the team created to explore how ambition pans out.

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May 29, 2026 Science Mathematics Psychology

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